There’s a lot going on again this week, but my fried brain couldn’t think of 3 things I think I think. So here’s 2 things I think I think:
1) The math in Europe still doesn’t work…
I’ve gotten quite a bit of backlash from some readers because of my negative stance on Europe. Last year I highlighted several reports on the potential for peripheral countries to grow their way out of their debt problems. And the math was simple. It would take a miracle for austerity to result in the peripheral nations growing their way out of the debt crisis and reaching a sustainable trend. But the LTRO appears to be working so that means Europe is fixed, right?! Not in my opinion. The story remains simple. It’s a currency crisis and until the currency problem is solved the problems will continue to fester.
The recent economic data across much of Europe only confirms this thinking. We see a new bout of weakness coming and Europeans are finally beginning to realize that austerity doesn’t work. So we’re once again seeing bond yields creep higher as private investors stop thinking about the LTRO arbitrage and once again focus on the issue that trumps everything – national solvency. And even more frightening are the persistent rumors of default and defection by some nations. This has the potential to set off a frightening chain of events very similar to Lehman. Europe needs to move towards greater unity, but they must stop kicking the can. Eurobonds should be moving to the forefront shortly….The only other option is potential disaster.
1) The math in Europe still doesn’t work…
I’ve gotten quite a bit of backlash from some readers because of my negative stance on Europe. Last year I highlighted several reports on the potential for peripheral countries to grow their way out of their debt problems. And the math was simple. It would take a miracle for austerity to result in the peripheral nations growing their way out of the debt crisis and reaching a sustainable trend. But the LTRO appears to be working so that means Europe is fixed, right?! Not in my opinion. The story remains simple. It’s a currency crisis and until the currency problem is solved the problems will continue to fester.
The recent economic data across much of Europe only confirms this thinking. We see a new bout of weakness coming and Europeans are finally beginning to realize that austerity doesn’t work. So we’re once again seeing bond yields creep higher as private investors stop thinking about the LTRO arbitrage and once again focus on the issue that trumps everything – national solvency. And even more frightening are the persistent rumors of default and defection by some nations. This has the potential to set off a frightening chain of events very similar to Lehman. Europe needs to move towards greater unity, but they must stop kicking the can. Eurobonds should be moving to the forefront shortly….The only other option is potential disaster.


















